Accountants Ernst & Young (EY) make the prediction in their latest Regional Economic Forecast, which has a focus on Yorkshire and the Humber.
During 2025 to 2028, the North Yorkshire economy is predicted to grow by 1.5 per cent in terms of GVA (Gross Value Added) for the overall production of goods and services.
Employment is also forecast to grow by 0.8 per cent a year over the same period.
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York is predicted to experience annual GVA growth of 1.3 per cent over the three years and employment growth of 0.6 per cent a year.
This compares with the Yorkshire and Humber average GVA growth of 1.5 per cent and employment growth of 0.6 per cent during 2025-28.
The national figures are slightly higher, with GVA growth of 1.6 per cent and employment growth of 0.7 p[er cent.
EY says human health and social work, real estate and education are expected to be York’s biggest contributors towards GVA between 2025 and 2028.
The electricity, gas and steam, and information and communication sectors are expected to be York’s fastest-growing sectors over the next three years when measured by GVA, with both forecast to see annual average growth of 2.5% between 2025 and 2028.
Human health and social work, wholesale and retail trade, and education are expected to remain the biggest contributors to employment in York over the next three years.
In North Yorkshire, real estate, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade are expected to be it’s biggest contributors towards GVA between 2025 and 2028.
The electricity, gas and steam, construction, information and communication, administrative support services, and other services sectors are expected to be the fastest-growing sectors in North Yorkshire over the next three years when measured by GVA, with all expected to see annual average growth of 2.6% each.
Accommodation and food services, and wholesale and retail trade are expected to be the biggest contributors to employment in North Yorkshire over the next three years.
Tim West, Leeds Office Managing Partner at EY, said: “North Yorkshire is expected to fare slightly better than the overall national averages for both economic and employment growth.
“This will be driven in part by the region’s growing technology sector, which is predicted to continue its upward trajectory, as well as increased activity in construction.
“The story across the broader Yorkshire and the Humber region is more mixed. Manufacturing has traditionally played a key role in the region, but businesses in the sector are facing elevated energy and labour costs, which is impacting margins.”
He added: “Looking ahead, Yorkshire and the Humber’s policymakers and businesses should continue prioritising the skills and capabilities needed to fuel the region’s high-growth sectors.
“Capitalising upon the region’s unique industrial strengths, as well as taking advantage of opportunities linked to emerging tech and the energy transition will also be key to ensuring Yorkshire and the Humber is an attractive destination for inward investment going forward.”